Spread: Suns (-28.5)

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Clippers (25%) · Clippers at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Suns11¢Clippers89¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Clippers

Consensus Traders

Clippers 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$48.3

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns11%

Clippers89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers1 trader

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,228

Combined PnL+$22.15

Suns3 traders

Total Value$69.59

Total Shares676

Combined PnL+$26.15

Clippers — 25%Suns — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clippersavg 95.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$22.15	56% 502-393 (895)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Clippersavg 94.3¢	$606.37	$682.41	+$96.84	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 94.3¢	$516.37	$489.02	-$27.35
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 4.5¢	$81.33	$193.39	+$124.19
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Sunsavg 6.9¢	$27.34	$42.74	+$15.4	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
RN1CTR<$100	Sunsavg 6.4¢	$14.6	$25.35	+$10.75	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sunsavg 3¢	$1.5	$1.5	-$0	49% 446-472 (918)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clippers

Invested

$2,123.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$22.15

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$606.37

Value

$682.41

PnL

+$96.84

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Clippers$516.3794.3¢-$27.35

Suns$81.334.5¢+$124.19

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$27.34

Value

$42.74

PnL

+$15.4

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

RN1CTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$14.6

Value

$25.35

PnL

+$10.75

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Suns

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidClippers at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clippers

1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Clippers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Suns 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clippers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.7%

89.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.