Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 210.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 87¢ · $587 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$586.89
$34.97
67.5¢ → 86.5¢
+28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 67.4¢ | $350.27 | $449.36 | +$99.09 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 34.4¢ | $143.1 | $76.75 | -$66.35 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $46.65 | $40.63 | -$6.02 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $6.4 | $13.76 | +$7.36 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $5.24 | $5.83 | +$0.59 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $0.26 | $0.56 | +$0.3 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
Invested
$350.27
Value
$449.36
PnL
+$99.09
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
RN1CTRInvested
$143.1
Value
$76.75
PnL
-$66.35
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$46.65
Value
$40.63
PnL
-$6.02
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$6.4
Value
$13.76
PnL
+$7.36
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$5.24
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$0.59
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.56
PnL
+$0.3
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.