Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 216.5

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 31¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 11

Over69¢Under31¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 100%

Total Value

$322.6

Combined PnL

$15.09

Smart Money Entry

31¢ → 31¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$322.6

Total Shares981

Combined PnL+$15.09

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 31¢	$108.81	$115.83	+$7.02	48% 949-1019 (1968)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$89.59	$95.37	+$5.78	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$71.1	$71.1	+$0	51% 3680-3510 (7190)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$29.45	$31.35	+$1.9	49% 444-470 (914)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$8.55	$8.94	+$0.39	54% 383-322 (705)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$108.81

Value

$115.83

PnL

+$7.02

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$89.59

Value

$95.37

PnL

+$5.78

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$71.1

Value

$71.1

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3680-3510 (7190)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.45

Value

$31.35

PnL

+$1.9

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.55

Value

$8.94

PnL

+$0.39

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.