Consensus PnL $8.9M · win rate 57% (4470–3348, n=7818) · was PM monthly #344 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.9M
Record
4470W / 3348L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 7818 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#933
Source
PM monthly #344
Record (90 d)
2571/4411 · 58%
Trades
5,940
Markets
11,349
Volume
$849.4M
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Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 6 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-04?Yes $110K · now 81¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (40% of 29)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $46K · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (60% of 141)
- FC Seoul vs. The Cong - Viettel FC: O/U 3.5Over $4.7K · now 17¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (60% of 11)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $360 · now 15¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?No $192 · now 86¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (32% of 52)
- Luanda: Suzan Lamens vs Kristina KroitorSuzan Lamens $36 · now 49¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Kristina Kroitor)
Specialties
7,054 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 55¢- NBA
+9 pts
side won 75% of 444 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +6%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 62% of 2281 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +1%
- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 54% of 1399 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 49% of 134 at an average 50¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 11% of 1183)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 45% of 1724)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 66% of 2055)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 91% of 2092)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.