Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Lakers (71%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Lakers (-8.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (100%) · Bucks at 30¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
6
Bucks 100%
$1.3K
-$41.65
30.4¢ → 29.5¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadoxCTR | Bucksavg 30¢ | $713.57 | $701.68 | -$11.89 | 30% 378-869 (1247) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Bucksavg 30¢ | $324.32 | $318.83 | -$5.49 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Bucksavg 30¢ | $187.96 | $184.83 | -$3.13 | 31% 380-851 (1231) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Bucksavg 35.7¢ | $106.07 | $86.21 | -$19.86 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 29.8¢ | $10.14 | $10.04 | -$0.1 | 48% 667-712 (1379) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 34¢ | $8.01 | $6.84 | -$1.18 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
Invested
$713.57
Value
$701.68
PnL
-$11.89
Record
30%
378-869 (1247)
Invested
$324.32
Value
$318.83
PnL
-$5.49
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$187.96
Value
$184.83
PnL
-$3.13
Record
31%
380-851 (1231)
Invested
$106.07
Value
$86.21
PnL
-$19.86
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$10.14
Value
$10.04
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
667-712 (1379)
Invested
$8.01
Value
$6.84
PnL
-$1.18
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.