Consensus PnL $103K · win rate 50% (1134–1151, n=2285) · PM monthly #321 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$103.0K
Record
1134W / 1151L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 2285 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1735
Source
PM monthly #321
Trades
15
Markets
2,464
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 12 on the consensus side (58%)- Exact Score: SS Lazio 3 - 0 Cagliari Calcio?No $14K · now 100¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $8.1K · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under $6.8K · now 46¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Over)
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under $2.3K · now 57¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Over)
- Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Over $1.4K · now 48¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Under)
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF $1.4K · now 41¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (50% of 17)
- Liverpool FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?No $666 · now 56¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?No $658 · now 51¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
803 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 56¢- MLB
+50 pts
side won 100% of 144 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +51%
- NBA
+48 pts
side won 100% of 86 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +48%
- Other Sports
+50 pts
side won 100% of 51 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +42%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 91% of 34)
- 30–50¢: 39%(won 99% of 311)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 100% of 271)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 100% of 187)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.