Spread: Jazz (-7.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (67%) · Heat at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Heat
6
Heat 67%
$1.4K
-$25.09
90.5¢ → 99¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHeat at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Heatavg 92.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$55.07 | 56% 504-395 (899) |
65 6512395314597884 | Heatavg 81¢ | $162 | $194 | +$32 | 51% 3173-3073 (6246) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Heatavg 90¢ | $45.22 | $48.96 | +$3.73 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
 RN1CTR | Jazzavg 17.2¢ | $103.65 | $24.41 | -$45.29 | 58% 3830-2807 (6637) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Heatavg 86¢ | $13.76 | $15.52 | +$1.76 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Jazzavg 7.4¢ | $81.77 | $9.41 | -$72.36 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
Invested
$1,020.65
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$55.07
Record
56%
504-395 (899)
Invested
$162
Value
$194
PnL
+$32
Record
51%
3173-3073 (6246)
Invested
$45.22
Value
$48.96
PnL
+$3.73
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
RN1CTRInvested
$103.65
Value
$24.41
PnL
-$45.29
Record
58%
3830-2807 (6637)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$15.52
PnL
+$1.76
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$81.77
Value
$9.41
PnL
-$72.36
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.