Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 202.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$1.6K
$6.14
89.3¢ → 96.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 88¢ | $969.52 | $1.0K | +$51.8 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
 RN1 | Overavg 92¢ | $360.64 | $372.22 | +$11.58 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
SU suitcase6628<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $82.8 | $85.95 | +$3.15 | 64% 179-99 (278) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 12¢ | $120 | $59 | -$61 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 91¢ | $10.92 | $11.52 | +$0.6 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $8 | $8 | -$0 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
Invested
$969.52
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$51.8
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
RN1Invested
$360.64
Value
$372.22
PnL
+$11.58
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$82.8
Value
$85.95
PnL
+$3.15
Record
64%
179-99 (278)
Invested
$120
Value
$59
PnL
-$61
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$11.52
PnL
+$0.6
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$8
Value
$8
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.