Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucks, while the market favors Knicks (65%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Knicks (-11.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (100%) · Bucks at 36¢ · $386 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Bucks
6
Bucks 100%
$385.62
-$10.97
35.7¢ → 35.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidBucks at 36%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Bucksavg 35.9¢ | $188.96 | $184.05 | -$4.91 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 36¢ | $81.36 | $79.12 | -$2.24 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bucksavg 35¢ | $69.46 | $67.48 | -$1.97 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 36¢ | $37.8 | $35.7 | -$2.1 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 34.9¢ | $29.66 | $16.55 | +$0.33 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 35¢ | $2.8 | $2.72 | -$0.08 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
Invested
$188.96
Value
$184.05
PnL
-$4.91
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$81.36
Value
$79.12
PnL
-$2.24
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
Invested
$69.46
Value
$67.48
PnL
-$1.97
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$37.8
Value
$35.7
PnL
-$2.1
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
Invested
$29.66
Value
$16.55
PnL
+$0.33
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.72
PnL
-$0.08
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.