Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 227.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 53¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
$10.5K
-$24.8
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Overavg 52¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | +$50.05 | 53% 625-550 (1175) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48.2¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$67.85 | 54% 17504-14709 (32213) |
FE ferdinand2CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $610.91 | $604.61 | -$6.3 | 51% 991-958 (1949) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $120 | $120 | -$0 | 58% 43592-31705 (75297) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $95.23 | $93.29 | -$1.94 | 44% 6439-8045 (14484) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $42.33 | $43.58 | +$1.25 | 46% 7287-8594 (15881) |
Invested
$5,199.92
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$50.05
Record
53%
625-550 (1175)
Invested
$4,454.31
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$67.85
Record
54%
17504-14709 (32213)
Invested
$610.91
Value
$604.61
PnL
-$6.3
Record
51%
991-958 (1949)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$120
Value
$120
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
43592-31705 (75297)
Invested
$95.23
Value
$93.29
PnL
-$1.94
Record
44%
6439-8045 (14484)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$42.33
Value
$43.58
PnL
+$1.25
Record
46%
7287-8594 (15881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.