Consensus PnL $1.1M · win rate 54% (612–524, n=1136) · PM monthly #20 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.1M
Record
612W / 524L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 1136 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1497
Source
PM monthly #20
Trades
569
Markets
1,209
Volume
$17.4M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 8 on the consensus side (50%)- Spread: Commanders (-6.5)Eagles $51K · now 54¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (40% of 15)
- Falcons vs. BuccaneersBuccaneers $22K · now 55¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (50% of 16)
- Spread: Bengals (-10.5)Bengals $12K · now 57¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Titans)
- Patriots vs. Dolphins: O/U 40.5Over $11K · now 54¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Chiefs vs. BroncosBroncos $2.0K · now 50¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Chiefs)
- Celtics vs. MagicMagic $1.4K · now 31¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Celtics)
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Raptors $379 · now 53¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Lakers)
- Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $378 · now 2¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
Specialties
587 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 52¢- MLB
+47 pts
side won 100% of 261 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +48%
- NBA
+50 pts
side won 100% of 80 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
- Tennis
+53 pts
side won 100% of 42 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 100% of 172)
- 50–70¢: 67%(won 100% of 396)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 10)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.