Spread: Thunder (-25.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (50%) · Trail Blazers at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
6
Trail Blazers 50%
$2.2K
-$1.62
97¢ → 99.6¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Trail Blazersavg 95.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$47.48 | 56% 563-451 (1014) |
38 38791873984189 | Trail Blazersavg 99.2¢ | $637.86 | $625.09 | -$12.77 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
PA Pan9X | Trail Blazersavg 99.2¢ | $185.07 | $171.51 | -$0.57 | 48% 512-544 (1056) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Thunderavg 3.4¢ | $47.55 | $11.08 | -$36.47 | 51% 3200-3120 (6320) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 0.8¢ | $5.72 | $6.44 | +$0.71 | 50% 1640-1620 (3260) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 0.2¢ | $0 | $0.02 | +$0 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
Invested
$1,310.17
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$47.48
Record
56%
563-451 (1014)
Invested
$637.86
Value
$625.09
PnL
-$12.77
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
Invested
$185.07
Value
$171.51
PnL
-$0.57
Record
48%
512-544 (1056)
Invested
$47.55
Value
$11.08
PnL
-$36.47
Record
51%
3200-3120 (6320)
Invested
$5.72
Value
$6.44
PnL
+$0.71
Record
50%
1640-1620 (3260)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.