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D2
Consensus PnL $633K · win rate 49% (10074–10657, n=20731) · PM monthly #38 · holds 410 consensus positions
0xd218e474...a32eb5c9Polymarket
@friendlyping🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$633.2K
Record
10074W / 10657L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 20731 settled
Batting Avg
50.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1974
Source
PM monthly #38
Record (90 d)
4112/10157 · 40%
Trades
186,936
Markets
33,625
Volume
$17.6M
Top consensus positions
410 in listed consensus markets · 276 of 410 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Yes $14K · now 83¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (67% of 22)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $13K · now 22¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $9.4K · now 21¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.2K · now 87¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (57% of 35)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $7.4K · now 43¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?Yes $6.4K · now 56¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (70% of 25)
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?No $5.7K · now 73¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (33% of 9)
- Israeli election results in a hung parliament?No $5.4K · now 55¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (Yes)