Spread: Trail Blazers (-26.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (67%) · Thunder at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
6
Thunder 67%
$2.3K
$21.25
96.8¢ → 99.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Thunderavg 97¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$0 | 55% 541-436 (977) |
FL Flaznorp | Thunderavg 95.8¢ | $815.33 | $682.9 | +$31.25 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
38 38791873984189 | Thunderavg 99.2¢ | $115.32 | $115.79 | +$0.47 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 3.4¢ | $64.84 | $56.53 | -$8.32 | 51% 3187-3102 (6289) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Thunderavg 99.2¢ | $52.15 | $50 | -$2.15 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 3¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 | 62% 2389-1477 (3866) |
Invested
$1,400.03
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
541-436 (977)
Invested
$815.33
Value
$682.9
PnL
+$31.25
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$115.32
Value
$115.79
PnL
+$0.47
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Invested
$64.84
Value
$56.53
PnL
-$8.32
Record
51%
3187-3102 (6289)
Invested
$52.15
Value
$50
PnL
-$2.15
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
Invested
$3
Value
$3
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
2389-1477 (3866)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.