Consensus PnL $97K · win rate 72% (1580–621, n=2201) · PM monthly #171 · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$97.4K
Record
1580W / 621L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 2201 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#485
Source
PM monthly #171
Record (90 d)
1935/2199 · 88%
Trades
406
Markets
3,967
Volume
$1.4M
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Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 36 on the consensus side (69%)- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?No $2.6K · now 87¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (81% of 33)
- Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?Yes $2.1K · now 92¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 4¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (56% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?No $1.2K · now 4¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: Clippers (-7.5)Heat $724 · now 67¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Clippers)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?Yes $355 · now 95¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (63% of 25)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?No $315 · now 93¢ · in at 90¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Clippers $254 · now 98¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (76% of 19)
Specialties
1,134 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 71¢- NBA
+34 pts
side won 100% of 313 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +6%
- Crypto
+31 pts
side won 100% of 439 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +26%
- College Football
+29 pts
side won 100% of 45 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +19%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 90% of 62)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 99% of 146)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 100% of 266)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 100% of 660)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.