Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 72¢ · $884 held · ends Nov 12

Over28¢Under72¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$883.71

Combined PnL

$0.05

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 71.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$654.31

Total Shares896

Combined PnL-$3.95

Over3 traders

Total Value$229.4

Total Shares850

Combined PnL+$4

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Underavg 73.5¢	$507.2	$409.53	-$3.5	48% 1352-1466 (2818)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 73¢	$151.88	$151.88	+$0	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 27¢	$121.4	$121.4	+$0	30% 375-875 (1250)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 26¢	$98.8	$102.6	+$3.8	31% 380-851 (1231)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 73.4¢	$93.35	$92.9	-$0.45	48% 667-712 (1379)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$5.2	$5.4	+$0.2	30% 378-869 (1247)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$507.2

Value

$409.53

PnL

-$3.5

Record

48%

1352-1466 (2818)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$151.88

Value

$151.88

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$121.4

Value

$121.4

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

375-875 (1250)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$98.8

Value

$102.6

PnL

+$3.8

Record

31%

380-851 (1231)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$93.35

Value

$92.9

PnL

-$0.45

Record

48%

667-712 (1379)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

30%

378-869 (1247)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.