Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 59¢ · $647 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
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Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$647.07
$111.48
53.2¢ → 59¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE denizz | Noavg 52.3¢ | $251.21 | $316.98 | +$65.77 | 68% 597-284 (881) |
 classifiedCTR | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $204.86 | $277.16 | +$45.26 | 58% 844-614 (1458) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 58.8¢ | $52.48 | $52.94 | +$0.45 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.