Consensus PnL $998K · win rate 51% (375–354, n=729) · PM monthly #286 · holds 48 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$997.6K
Record
375W / 354L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 729 settled
Batting Avg
72.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1689
Source
PM monthly #286 + pinned
Trades
138,619
Markets
1,696
Volume
$44.9M
Top consensus positions
48 in listed consensus markets · 32 of 48 on the consensus side (67%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $36K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $22K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $21K · now 86¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (87% of 46)
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Yes $19K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes $17K · now 92¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (53% of 17)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Yes $16K · now 42¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (40% of 15)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?Yes $16K · now 83¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?No $12K · now 74¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (55% of 32)
Specialties
819 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 45¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 59% of 308 · avg entry 56¢
ROI −1%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 63% of 68 · avg entry 57¢
ROI 0%
- NFL
+2 pts
side won 40% of 15 · avg entry 38¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 16% of 221 at an average 17¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 51%(won 3% of 414)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 27% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 81% of 37)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 99% of 338)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.