Consensus PnL -$167K · win rate 49% (3363–3511, n=6874) · was PM monthly #320 · holds 84 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-166.6K
Record
3363W / 3511L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 6874 settled
Batting Avg
48.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1832
Source
PM monthly #320
Trades
57,052
Markets
14,384
Volume
$30.6M
Top consensus positions
84 in listed consensus markets · 39 of 84 on the consensus side (46%)- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?No $23K · now 73¢ · in at 71¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseNo $18K · now 78¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (11% of 37)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $8.8K · now 30¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $8.6K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No $7.0K · now 79¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (72% of 26)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $6.9K · now 28¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $6.5K · now 72¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $4.9K · now 90¢ · in at 88¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
4,794 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 65¢- College Football
+32 pts
side won 93% of 61 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +16%
- Crypto
+24 pts
side won 92% of 330 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +4%
- Finance
+23 pts
side won 91% of 161 · avg entry 68¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 40% of 10 at an average 50¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 30% of 896)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 74% of 490)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 88% of 736)
- 70¢ and up: 56%(won 97% of 2672)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.