Consensus PnL $2.4M · win rate 79% (307–84, n=391) · was PM monthly #569 · holds 27 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$2.4M
Record
307W / 84L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 391 settled
Batting Avg
58.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#464
Source
PM monthly #569 + pinned
Trades
113,115
Markets
976
Volume
$35.2M
Top consensus positions
27 in listed consensus markets · 23 of 27 on the consensus side (85%)- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $540K · now 96¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $311K · now 84¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $157K · now 97¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No $32K · now 97¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (57% of 29)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $28K · now 84¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (72% of 48)
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Yes $23K · now 82¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (77% of 22)
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?No $15K · now 94¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 96¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
Specialties
618 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 65¢- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 68% of 494 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +7%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 77% of 44 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +5%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 64% of 14 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 5% of 128)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 49% of 51)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 69% of 71)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 97% of 368)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.