Spread: Bills (-7.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (25%) · Vikings at 68¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Vikings
8
Vikings 25%
$3.6K
-$4.66
68¢ → 67.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralVikings at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Vikingsavg 68¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$17.57 | — |
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Billsavg 32¢ | $927.36 | $941.85 | +$14.49 | — |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Billsavg 33¢ | $101.48 | $100.08 | -$1.4 | — |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Billsavg 32¢ | $70.27 | $71.37 | +$1.1 | — |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Billsavg 34¢ | $43.52 | $41.6 | -$1.92 | — |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Vikingsavg 67¢ | $18.37 | $18.51 | +$0.14 | — |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Billsavg 32¢ | $52 | $16.9 | +$0.26 | — |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Billsavg 31¢ | $20.99 | $8.92 | +$0.25 | — |
nigiri99Invested
$2,390.2
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$17.57
Record
—
Invested
$927.36
Value
$941.85
PnL
+$14.49
Record
—
Invested
$101.48
Value
$100.08
PnL
-$1.4
Record
—
Invested
$70.27
Value
$71.37
PnL
+$1.1
Record
—
Invested
$43.52
Value
$41.6
PnL
-$1.92
Record
—
Invested
$18.37
Value
$18.51
PnL
+$0.14
Record
—
Invested
$52
Value
$16.9
PnL
+$0.26
Record
—
Invested
$20.99
Value
$8.92
PnL
+$0.25
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.