Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (57%) · Cowboys at 88¢ · $781 held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys88¢Colts12¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 57%

Total Value

$781.1

Combined PnL

$6.01

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 87.5¢

+59% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys88%

Colts13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys4 traders

Total Value$427.47

Total Shares719

Combined PnL+$32.75

Colts3 traders

Total Value$353.63

Total Shares861

Combined PnL-$26.73

Cowboys — 57%Colts — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Cowboysavg 54¢	$557.54	$331.74	+$30.66	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Coltsavg 46¢	$286.62	$253.08	-$33.54	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
PR primmCTR	Coltsavg 36¢	$183.75	$76.26	+$10.11	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 57.3¢	$46.94	$47.01	+$0.07	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
38 38791873984189<$100	Cowboysavg 63¢	$25.11	$25.33	+$0.21	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Coltsavg 46¢	$60	$24.3	-$3.3	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Cowboysavg 54¢	$40	$23.4	+$1.8	51% 5657-5508 (11165)

ferrariChampions2026

Cowboys

Invested

$557.54

Value

$331.74

PnL

+$30.66

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Colts

Invested

$286.62

Value

$253.08

PnL

-$33.54

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

primmCTR

Colts

Invested

$183.75

Value

$76.26

PnL

+$10.11

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$46.94

Value

$47.01

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

38791873984189<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$25.11

Value

$25.33

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$60

Value

$24.3

PnL

-$3.3

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

6512395314597884<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$40

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$1.8

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Cowboys 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.