Avalanche vs. Senators
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Avalanche (17%) · Avalanche at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Avalanche
6
Avalanche 17%
$6.2K
$22.02
Research grade
NeutralAvalanche at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3E 0x3e04...564d | Avalancheavg 53¢ | $3.2K | $3.1K | -$30 | — |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Senatorsavg 47¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.42 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
4D 0x4dd2...14c2CTR | Senatorsavg 46¢ | $866.39 | $894.69 | +$28.3 | — |
CF 0xcf6c...7e66CTR | Senatorsavg 47¢ | $820.25 | $828.98 | +$8.73 | — |
E5 0xe550...be3fCTR<$100 | Senatorsavg 47¢ | $75.67 | $76.48 | +$0.8 | — |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Senatorsavg 46¢ | $23.46 | $24.22 | +$0.76 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
Invested
$3,179.98
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$30
Record
—
Invested
$1,261.35
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.42
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$866.39
Value
$894.69
PnL
+$28.3
Record
—
Invested
$820.25
Value
$828.98
PnL
+$8.73
Record
—
Invested
$75.67
Value
$76.48
PnL
+$0.8
Record
—
Invested
$23.46
Value
$24.22
PnL
+$0.76
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.