Consensus PnL $1.8K · win rate 73% (202–76, n=278) · was PM monthly #491 · holds 266 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.8K
Record
202W / 76L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 278 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#436
Source
PM monthly #491
Record (90 d)
202/278 · 73%
Trades
13,097
Markets
2,445
Volume
$78.9K
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Top consensus positions
266 in listed consensus markets · 161 of 266 on the consensus side (61%)- Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5Under $430 · now 51¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Over)
- Spurs vs. BullsSpurs $327 · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (61% of 87)
- Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: O/U 0.5Over $318 · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (35% of 17)
- Spread: FK Austria Wien (-1.5)Sport Lisboa e Benfica $252 · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Will England win on 2026-11-12?Yes $244 · now 80¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (55% of 25)
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic $235 · now 55¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Jazz)
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien end in a draw?No $206 · now 76¢ · in at 75¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will France win on 2026-11-12?No $194 · now 49¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
175 settled consensus markets · held side won 39% at an average entry of 39¢- Tennis
+9 pts
side won 38% of 13 · avg entry 30¢
ROI 0%
- NHL
+10 pts
side won 64% of 11 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +14%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 32% of 90 at an average 33¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 49%(won 7% of 85)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 37% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 70% of 27)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 92% of 36)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.