Panthers vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 57¢ · $353 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
$353.33
-$27.42
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 58.9¢ | $172.17 | $174.86 | +$2.68 | 54% 1657-1434 (3091) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 47.4¢ | $127.74 | $108.99 | -$18.74 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $35.34 | $37.67 | +$2.32 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 50.4¢ | $43.87 | $18 | -$8.32 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $19.19 | $13.81 | -$5.37 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
Invested
$172.17
Value
$174.86
PnL
+$2.68
Record
54%
1657-1434 (3091)
Invested
$127.74
Value
$108.99
PnL
-$18.74
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$35.34
Value
$37.67
PnL
+$2.32
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$43.87
Value
$18
PnL
-$8.32
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$19.19
Value
$13.81
PnL
-$5.37
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.