Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (90%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Wild vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 10¢ · $61 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 60%
$61.33
-$27.67
Research grade
AvoidOver at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 90%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $58.5 | $27 | -$31.5 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $12.38 | $25.6 | +$13.23 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 62¢ | $12.33 | $4.77 | -$7.55 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $2.25 | $2.32 | +$0.07 | 54% 1657-1434 (3091) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 78¢ | $3.55 | $1.64 | -$1.91 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
Invested
$58.5
Value
$27
PnL
-$31.5
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$12.38
Value
$25.6
PnL
+$13.23
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$12.33
Value
$4.77
PnL
-$7.55
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.07
Record
54%
1657-1434 (3091)
Invested
$3.55
Value
$1.64
PnL
-$1.91
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.