Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Utah (57%) · Utah at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Utah
7
Utah 57%
$1.1K
$25.97
67¢ → 66.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUtah at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
97 0x9703...69c2 | Utahavg 67¢ | $319.82 | $329.37 | +$9.55 | — |
38 38791873984189 | Utahavg 67¢ | $246.02 | $253.28 | +$7.26 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
DC 0xdc41...dd7eCTR | Golden Knightsavg 33¢ | $247.87 | $251.25 | +$3.38 | — |
0A 0x0a77...9d74CTR | Golden Knightsavg 32¢ | $106.06 | $107.72 | +$1.66 | — |
4D 0x4dd2...14c2CTR<$100 | Golden Knightsavg 31.2¢ | $52.33 | $55.32 | +$3 | — |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Utahavg 67¢ | $33.5 | $34.5 | +$1 | 55% 205-165 (370) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Utahavg 66.2¢ | $27.59 | $27.72 | +$0.13 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
Invested
$319.82
Value
$329.37
PnL
+$9.55
Record
—
Invested
$246.02
Value
$253.28
PnL
+$7.26
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Invested
$247.87
Value
$251.25
PnL
+$3.38
Record
—
Invested
$106.06
Value
$107.72
PnL
+$1.66
Record
—
Invested
$52.33
Value
$55.32
PnL
+$3
Record
—
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$33.5
Value
$34.5
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
205-165 (370)
Invested
$27.59
Value
$27.72
PnL
+$0.13
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.