Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
St Mirren FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Score
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 43¢ · $550 held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$550.24
-$202.01
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IS IsraelDJJBCTR | Noavg 16.8¢ | $208.35 | $527.26 | -$200 | 47% 69-77 (146) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $58 | $20.11 | -$0.38 | 58% 46317-33437 (79754) |
US User7429<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $2.88 | -$1.63 | 56% 9088-7232 (16320) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.