Consensus PnL $56K · win rate 57% (7515–5709, n=13224) · PM monthly #689 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.5K
Record
7515W / 5709L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 13224 settled
Batting Avg
18.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1319
Source
PM monthly #689
Trades
5,632
Markets
15,674
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Counter-Strike: DNK vs SINQU (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group StageSINQU $70 · now 38¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (75% of 5)
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over $36 · now 100¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (67% of 17)
- Nets vs. PacersPacers $12 · now 62¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (50% of 17)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over $9 · now 70¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (83% of 13)
- Clippers vs. WarriorsClippers $9 · now 47¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (44% of 23)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over $8 · now 64¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (52% of 37)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over $6 · now 53¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- SBV Excelsior vs. FC Twente: Both Teams to ScoreYes $5 · now 0¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (44% of 10)
Specialties
2,842 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 70¢- NBA
+37 pts
side won 99% of 95 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +34%
- Soccer
+26 pts
side won 95% of 1202 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +25%
- Tennis
+23 pts
side won 93% of 550 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +17%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 58% of 104)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 85% of 485)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 95% of 700)
- 70¢ and up: 55%(won 99% of 1553)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.