Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Torino FC vs. US Lecce end in a draw?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 27¢ · $200 held · ends Nov 7

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$200.26

Combined PnL

$3.74

Smart Money Entry

26¢ → 27¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$175.23

Total Shares661

Combined PnL+$3.31

No2 traders

Total Value$25.03

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$0.43

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$108.59	$110.68	+$2.09	64% 9969-5597 (15566)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$63.33	$64.55	+$1.22	64% 9927-5529 (15456)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 73¢	$47.99	$17.94	+$0.41	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.07	$7.09	+$0.02	58% 21213-15412 (36625)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.59

Value

$110.68

PnL

+$2.09

Record

64%

9969-5597 (15566)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.33

Value

$64.55

PnL

+$1.22

Record

64%

9927-5529 (15456)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$47.99

Value

$17.94

PnL

+$0.41

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.07

Value

$7.09

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.