Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (97%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Lausanne-Sport vs. FC Thun: O/U 7.5
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 3.5¢ · $800 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 33%
$800.19
$-1.8K
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 4.1¢ | $58.55 | $527.31 | +$468.75 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 37.6¢ | $189.16 | $185.79 | -$3.36 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 96.5¢ | $2.4K | $87.09 | $-2.3K | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.