Consensus PnL $435 · win rate 45% (3480–4190, n=7670) · was PM monthly #967 · holds 87 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$434.72
Record
3480W / 4190L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 7670 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1970
Source
PM monthly #967
Trades
28,745
Markets
18,582
Volume
$4.4M
Top consensus positions
87 in listed consensus markets · 52 of 87 on the consensus side (60%)- Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs ZimbabweAfghanistan $1.4K · now 94¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Counter-Strike: WBT Academy vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - Circuito Retake PlayoffsWBT Academy $736 · now 71¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (Iberian Soul)
- AS Gubbio vs. Vis Pesaro 1898: O/U 2.5Over $724 · now 13¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Under)
- Will Boluspor win on 2026-10-14?No $626 · now 80¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex $517 · now 7¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $313 · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
- Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 2.5Under $280 · now 63¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Torino FC leading at halftime?No $198 · now 100¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Specialties
1,147 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 62¢- Tennis
+49 pts
side won 100% of 89 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +52%
- College Football
+41 pts
side won 100% of 168 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +41%
- Soccer
+35 pts
side won 100% of 731 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 98% of 111)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 100% of 253)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 100% of 313)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 100% of 470)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.