Consensus PnL $1.4M · win rate 49% (17916–18381, n=36297) · PM monthly #7 · holds 224 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.4M
Record
17916W / 18381L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 36297 settled
Batting Avg
55.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1826
Source
PM monthly #7
Trades
31,634
Markets
81,934
Volume
$181.4M
Top consensus positions
224 in listed consensus markets · 156 of 224 on the consensus side (70%)- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-01?No $50K · now 73¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $33K · now 43¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (61% of 43)
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)Chargers $27K · now 76¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego $24K · now 72¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (87% of 16)
- Will KV Kortrijk win on 2026-10-23?No $22K · now 61¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Spread: Rams (-17.5)Chargers $22K · now 82¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Falkirk FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5Under $20K · now 61¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (17% of 9)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under $18K · now 61¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (58% of 20)
Specialties
37,801 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 66¢- MLB
+59 pts
side won 100% of 942 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +58%
- Esports
+62 pts
side won 100% of 66 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +63%
- MMA
+63 pts
side won 100% of 36 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +63%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 99% of 2639)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 100% of 7897)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 100% of 8504)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 18761)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.