Will BG Pathum United win on 2026-11-02?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 2

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$71.96

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 70.5¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,875

Combined PnL+$76.55

Yes2 traders

Total Value$37.84

Total Shares118

Combined PnL-$4.59

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$25.23	54% 58127-50358 (108485)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$32.46
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31¢	$448.21	$419.29	-$7.23
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 66.2¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$74.75	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$9.98	50% 26428-26255 (52683)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.4¢	$695.66	$722.42	+$26.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.5¢	$521.33	$479.73	-$16.79
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.2¢	$41.03	$36.31	-$4.72	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 63.2¢	$16.95	$18.75	+$1.8	53% 6371-5759 (12130)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.53	+$0.13	51% 997-961 (1958)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,852.45

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$25.23

Record

54%

58127-50358 (108485)

Both legs:

No$1,404.2467.9¢+$32.46

Yes$448.2131¢-$7.23

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,429.68

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$74.75

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,216.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.98

Record

50%

26428-26255 (52683)

Both legs:

No$695.6668.4¢+$26.77

Yes$521.3331.5¢-$16.79

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.03

Value

$36.31

PnL

-$4.72

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$16.95

Value

$18.75

PnL

+$1.8

Record

53%

6371-5759 (12130)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

51%

997-961 (1958)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.