Consensus PnL -$1.8M · win rate 48% (5814–6256, n=12070) · PM monthly #164 · holds 147 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-1.8M
Record
5814W / 6256L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 12070 settled
Batting Avg
50.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1869
Source
PM monthly #164
Trades
50,056
Markets
51,732
Volume
$243.9M
Top consensus positions
147 in listed consensus markets · 101 of 147 on the consensus side (69%)- Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 3.5Under $20K · now 90¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will Celtic FC win on 2026-11-01?No $9.0K · now 99¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (85% of 21)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Under $8.6K · now 80¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Over)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under $8.5K · now 61¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (58% of 20)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5Over $7.7K · now 100¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will Falkirk FC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $6.8K · now 94¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (53% of 18)
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5Under $5.3K · now 97¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Will Getafe CF win on 2026-11-01?No $5.2K · now 29¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (71% of 25)
Specialties
4,636 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 69¢- Soccer
+30 pts
side won 99% of 4636 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 94% of 415)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 98% of 492)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 99% of 1008)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 100% of 2721)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.