Exact Score: Umraniyespor 1 - 1 Boluspor?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 50¢ · $507 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$506.86
$348.27
14.3¢ → 50¢
+250% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $133.06 | $308.98 | +$175.91 | 51% 25463-24164 (49627) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $378 | $187.11 | +$176.89 | 28% 362-938 (1300) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $10.1 | -$4.9 | 53% 60903-53272 (114175) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $0.31 | $0.67 | +$0.36 | 51% 37347-36602 (73949) |
Invested
$133.06
Value
$308.98
PnL
+$175.91
Record
51%
25463-24164 (49627)
Invested
$378
Value
$187.11
PnL
+$176.89
Record
28%
362-938 (1300)
RN1<$100Invested
$15
Value
$10.1
PnL
-$4.9
Record
53%
60903-53272 (114175)
Invested
$0.31
Value
$0.67
PnL
+$0.36
Record
51%
37347-36602 (73949)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.