Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 45¢ · $476 held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$475.65
$195.24
53.6¢ → 44.5¢
-17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 20.8¢ | $123.85 | $330.62 | +$206.77 | 51% 17610-16613 (34223) |
DI dips.CTR | Overavg 53.3¢ | $143.97 | $120.13 | -$23.84 | 46% 7315-8501 (15816) |
MO mouzsynapse<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $5.12 | $12.36 | +$7.24 | 37% 731-1227 (1958) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $6.57 | $9.77 | +$3.2 | 53% 8072-7284 (15356) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $0.9 | $2.78 | +$1.88 | 46% 7928-9254 (17182) |
Invested
$123.85
Value
$330.62
PnL
+$206.77
Record
51%
17610-16613 (34223)
Invested
$143.97
Value
$120.13
PnL
-$23.84
Record
46%
7315-8501 (15816)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$12.36
PnL
+$7.24
Record
37%
731-1227 (1958)
Invested
$6.57
Value
$9.77
PnL
+$3.2
Record
53%
8072-7284 (15356)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$1.88
Record
46%
7928-9254 (17182)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.