Consensus PnL $4.9K · win rate 44% (4921–6236, n=11157) · PM monthly #290 · holds 96 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.9K
Record
4921W / 6236L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 11157 settled
Batting Avg
30.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2221
Source
PM monthly #290
Record (90 d)
4512/11254 · 40%
Trades
69,894
Markets
15,914
Volume
$7.1M
Top consensus positions
96 in listed consensus markets · 25 of 96 on the consensus side (26%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes $8.0K · now 23¢ · in at 23¢with the consensus (91% of 54)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $4.7K · now 21¢ · in at 25¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $3.8K · now 23¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 22¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No $3.1K · now 22¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?No $2.6K · now 63¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (30% of 20)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $1.6K · now 6¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $1.6K · now 28¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
7,533 settled consensus markets · held side won 41% at an average entry of 41¢- NFL
+5 pts
side won 58% of 568 · avg entry 53¢
ROI 0%
- MLB
+5 pts
side won 56% of 336 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +5%
- MMA
+3 pts
side won 65% of 26 · avg entry 62¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 37% of 4458 at an average 38¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 48%(won 4% of 3651)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 34% of 734)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 64% of 912)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 93% of 2236)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.