Consensus PnL $60K · win rate 43% (4706–6225, n=10931) · PM monthly #745 · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$59.7K
Record
4706W / 6225L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 10931 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2261
Source
PM monthly #745
Record (90 d)
2545/5659 · 45%
Trades
8,494
Markets
17,055
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 23 on the consensus side (43%)- Dota 2: LEGION vs HULIGANI - Game 1 WinnerHULIGANI $67 · now 71¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (72% of 35)
- W15 Szabolcsveresmart: Sofia Barhacova vs Lujza ZimenovaSofia Barhacova $53 · now 100¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Al Nassr Club win on 2026-10-26?Yes $40 · now 60¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (88% of 9)
- Daegu Pegasus vs. AnyangAnyang $32 · now 73¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Athletic Club leading at halftime?Yes $32 · now 42¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over $28 · now 32¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Under)
- Taipei: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan KumstatJan Kumstat $27 · now 41¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (68% of 30)
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe - Map 2 WinnerFURIA $26 · now 100¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (63% of 42)
Specialties
2,530 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 46¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where lryyy's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 46% of 1276 at an average 48¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 34%(won 4% of 849)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 31% of 558)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 69% of 455)
- 70¢ and up: 26%(won 91% of 668)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.