Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 2.5
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
2
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$212.39
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IA ianf2026 | Underavg 52¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$217.95 | 49% 92-96 (188) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 57.9¢ | $1.3K | $988.13 | -$331.57 | 54% 57287-49527 (106814) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 57.9¢ | $850.15 | $550.63 | -$299.51 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 67.1¢ | $469.56 | $437.5 | -$32.06 | |
RE retarbCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $25.4 | $19.85 | -$5.56 | 48% 4255-4550 (8805) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.