Consensus PnL $230K · win rate 48% (3618–3978, n=7596) · was PM monthly #925 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$229.9K
Record
3618W / 3978L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 7596 settled
Batting Avg
32.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1870
Source
PM monthly #925
Trades
1,612
Markets
9,580
Volume
$2.3M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Boluspor win on 2026-10-14?No $326 · now 51¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: O/U 2.5Over $20 · now 38¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Under)
- Will Lausanne-Sport win on 2026-11-01?Yes $9 · now 38¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over $4 · now 53¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
Specialties
3,047 settled consensus markets · held side won 61% at an average entry of 50¢- NFL
+35 pts
side won 97% of 29 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +13%
- Soccer
+12 pts
side won 62% of 2001 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +11%
- NHL
+15 pts
side won 62% of 157 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 38% of 21 at an average 47¢ entry (−9 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 19% of 771)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 53% of 698)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 77% of 758)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 92% of 820)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.