Will AZ win on 2026-11-05?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 76¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 5

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$147.92

Combined PnL

$0.49

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 75.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$146.59

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$0.46

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.33

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.03

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 73¢	$70.89	$70.89	-$0	64% 9844-5498 (15342)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 73¢	$60	$44.1	+$0.3	64% 9878-5564 (15442)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 73¢	$21.91	$21.91	+$0.15	48% 7330-7836 (15166)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 75¢	$6	$6.04	+$0.04	53% 16660-14807 (31467)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.65	-$0.03	51% 25630-24353 (49983)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.33	+$0.03	52% 8742-7954 (16696)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$70.89

Value

$70.89

PnL

-$0

Record

64%

9844-5498 (15342)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$60

Value

$44.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

64%

9878-5564 (15442)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$21.91

Value

$21.91

PnL

+$0.15

Record

48%

7330-7836 (15166)

Cannae<$100

Invested

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

16660-14807 (31467)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

25630-24353 (49983)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

8742-7954 (16696)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.