Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: Both Teams to Score
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$7.01
45.1¢ → 45.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+33 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 45¢ | $366.26 | $362.74 | +$4.04 | 64% 9969-5596 (15565) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 45.2¢ | $156.96 | $220.37 | +$0.27 | 51% 25751-24453 (50204) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 45¢ | $191.25 | $189.13 | -$2.13 | 64% 9927-5528 (15455) |
 nigiri99 | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $176.85 | $163.08 | -$8.57 | 46% 8594-10246 (18840) |
CA CannaeARB<$100 | Noavg 43.1¢ | $145.09 | $149.71 | +$4.62 | 53% 16808-14936 (31744) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43.1¢ | $111.91 | $115.61 | +$3.7 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54¢ | $33.18 | $34.1 | +$0.92 | |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $37.38 | $37.07 | -$0.31 | 50% 25823-25522 (51345) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $27.5 | $27.25 | -$0.25 | 48% 61176-65982 (127158) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $8.25 | $8.18 | -$0.07 | 55% 9738-8127 (17865) |
Invested
$366.26
Value
$362.74
PnL
+$4.04
Record
64%
9969-5596 (15565)
Invested
$156.96
Value
$220.37
PnL
+$0.27
Record
51%
25751-24453 (50204)
Invested
$191.25
Value
$189.13
PnL
-$2.13
Record
64%
9927-5528 (15455)
nigiri99Invested
$176.85
Value
$163.08
PnL
-$8.57
Record
46%
8594-10246 (18840)
Invested
$145.09
Value
$149.71
PnL
+$4.62
Record
53%
16808-14936 (31744)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.38
Value
$37.07
PnL
-$0.31
Record
50%
25823-25522 (51345)
Invested
$27.5
Value
$27.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
61176-65982 (127158)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$8.18
PnL
-$0.07
Record
55%
9738-8127 (17865)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.