Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-11-05?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.2K
$9.18
74.7¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 75¢ | $808.25 | $808.25 | +$0 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 74¢ | $584.46 | $592.68 | +$7.88 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 75¢ | $426.75 | $426.75 | +$0 | 64% 9875-5563 (15438) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 74.8¢ | $335.95 | $336.98 | +$1.03 | 53% 16647-14800 (31447) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $40.21 | $40.48 | +$0.27 | 50% 25741-25428 (51169) |
Invested
$808.25
Value
$808.25
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
Invested
$584.46
Value
$592.68
PnL
+$7.88
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$426.75
Value
$426.75
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
9875-5563 (15438)
Invested
$335.95
Value
$336.98
PnL
+$1.03
Record
53%
16647-14800 (31447)
Invested
$40.21
Value
$40.48
PnL
+$0.27
Record
50%
25741-25428 (51169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.