Will Sunderland AFC vs. GNK Dinamo Zagreb end in a draw?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 81¢ · $62 held · ends Nov 5

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$61.66

Combined PnL

$0.03

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$38.87

Total Shares194

Combined PnL+$0.07

No4 traders

Total Value$22.8

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$0.04

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$35	$35	+$0	64% 9839-5498 (15337)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 80¢	$11.2	$11.2	-$0.07	48% 7320-7822 (15142)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$4.04	$4	-$0.04	52% 8737-7949 (16686)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.76	$3.81	+$0.05	58% 46317-33437 (79754)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.76	$3.79	+$0.02	48% 60745-65398 (126143)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0.07	51% 25600-24316 (49916)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1.07	$1.07	+$0	64% 9875-5563 (15438)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35

Value

$35

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

9839-5498 (15337)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

7320-7822 (15142)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

52%

8737-7949 (16686)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

46317-33437 (79754)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

60745-65398 (126143)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.07

Record

51%

25600-24316 (49916)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

9875-5563 (15438)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.