Will Italy vs. France end in a draw?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 77¢ · $495 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$495.1
$6.53
75¢ → 76.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 75.1¢ | $295.81 | $299.3 | +$3.5 | 60% 3442-2336 (5778) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 75¢ | $139.83 | $141.69 | +$1.86 | 16% 66-348 (414) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $24.86 | $25.53 | +$0.67 | 48% 917-990 (1907) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $15.2 | +$0.2 | 50% 1421-1422 (2843) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $9.32 | $9.57 | +$0.25 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.8 | +$0.05 | 31% 174-392 (566) |
Invested
$295.81
Value
$299.3
PnL
+$3.5
Record
60%
3442-2336 (5778)
Invested
$139.83
Value
$141.69
PnL
+$1.86
Record
16%
66-348 (414)
Invested
$24.86
Value
$25.53
PnL
+$0.67
Record
48%
917-990 (1907)
Invested
$15
Value
$15.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
1421-1422 (2843)
Invested
$9.32
Value
$9.57
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
31%
174-392 (566)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.