Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Belgium win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.1K
-$4.15
48.7¢ → 48.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 48¢ | $441.67 | $484.99 | +$5 | 58% 53770-38280 (92050) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 49.9¢ | $290.38 | $282.84 | -$7.64 | 52% 49472-46424 (95896) |
P1 P1kasoCTR | Noavg 48.6¢ | $180.99 | $180.45 | -$0.54 | 64% 1206-689 (1895) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $87.71 | $85.92 | -$0.9 | 48% 8399-8933 (17332) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $18.28 | $18.2 | -$0.08 | 48% 72152-77872 (150024) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$441.67
Value
$484.99
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
53770-38280 (92050)
Invested
$290.38
Value
$282.84
PnL
-$7.64
Record
52%
49472-46424 (95896)
Invested
$180.99
Value
$180.45
PnL
-$0.54
Record
64%
1206-689 (1895)
Invested
$87.71
Value
$85.92
PnL
-$0.9
Record
48%
8399-8933 (17332)
Invested
$18.28
Value
$18.2
PnL
-$0.08
Record
48%
72152-77872 (150024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.