Consensus PnL $102K · win rate 69% (616–271, n=887) · PM monthly #665 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$102.2K
Record
616W / 271L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 887 settled
Batting Avg
62.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#776
Source
PM monthly #665
Trades
2,719
Markets
1,238
Volume
$5.4M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 12 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?No $18K · now 78¢ · in at 77¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $5.6K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $3.0K · now 13¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $1.9K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 108)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $1.9K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?No $1.3K · now 69¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (69% of 15)
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?No $1.0K · now 66¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?Yes $870 · now 42¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
761 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 69¢- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 70% of 450 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +2%
- Other Sports
+11 pts
side won 86% of 50 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +2%
- Tennis
+14 pts
side won 75% of 24 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 83% of 69 at an average 84¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 7% of 133)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 57% of 76)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 72% of 114)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 97% of 438)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.