Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
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Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
$1.2K
$34.31
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 manekineko | Yesavg 97.8¢ | $979.23 | $936.37 | -$18.32 | 84% 365-71 (436) |
 AllByMyseIfCTR | Noavg 2.3¢ | $72.35 | $214.68 | +$53.68 | 65% 671-357 (1028) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $0.35 | -$1.05 | 73% 2836-1048 (3884) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.