Consensus PnL $579K · win rate 72% (317–125, n=442) · PM monthly #315 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$578.6K
Record
317W / 125L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 442 settled
Batting Avg
69.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#660
Source
PM monthly #315 + pinned
Trades
52,560
Markets
1,259
Volume
$11.5M
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 22 on the consensus side (64%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $46K · now 45¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $41K · now 84¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $19K · now 17¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?No $16K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No $8.8K · now 73¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (62% of 42)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?No $8.7K · now 89¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $8.3K · now 27¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?No $7.6K · now 45¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
Specialties
743 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 76¢- Politics
+15 pts
side won 91% of 137 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +5%
- Geopolitics
+14 pts
side won 88% of 193 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +10%
- Mentions
+9 pts
side won 95% of 140 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 34% of 94)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 77% of 39)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 89% of 70)
- 70¢ and up: 73%(won 99% of 540)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.